The Demographic Swap: A Conservative Fight for the Future
Despite sanctimonious arguments from the left, the facts share a startling picture in Europe and the US of a demographic swap. White population is being replaced and placed in competition.
French author Renaud Camus wrote a 2011 book titled Le Grand Remplacement.
With that came the term - "Great Replacement".
Per this theory, white European populations are being demographically and culturally replaced by non-white peoples, especially from Muslim-majority countries, through mass migration and higher birth rates.
Many call these claims to be racist.
Here are the facts:
The U.S. Census Bureau projected in 2015 that non-Hispanic white Americans would no longer be a numerical majority by 2044, but would still remain the largest racial/ethnic group
Muslims made up an estimated 8.8% to 12.5% of France's population in 2017, up from less than 1% in 2001
The demography in the West is changing. Let’s talk about Europe for example.
Per Pew Research's report titled “Europe’s Growing Muslim Population”, the Muslim population in Europe is increasing and will continue to grow. Meanwhile, the non-Muslim population will continue to decrease.
Age and fertility: Muslims are younger and have more children than other Europeans.
Scenario 1: Zero migration
If all migration into Europe were to stop, the Muslim population would still grow from 4.9% to 7.4% by 2050.
Scenario 2: Medium migration
If recent levels of regular migration continue, the Muslim population could grow to 11.2% by 2050
Scenario 3: High migration
If recent levels of regular migration continue, the Muslim population could grow to 14% by 2050
Well, as per the Tehran Times, the Muslims in Europe are already 50.3 million.
By 2023, that number has exceeded 50.3 million, which makes Islam the second largest religion in Europe. The figure pales in comparison with the third and fourth largest religions in Europe, which number between one and two million. (Source: “Rise of Islam in Europe and its consequences” / Tehran Times)
That means, as of now, the trajectory is close to the High Migration levels.
And, what has caused this increase? Fertility and Migration.
Lack of fertility is keeping the Non-Muslims is leading to a decrease in their net population, while just increased fertility led to an increase of close to 3 mn Muslims between 2010 and 2016.
The replacement birth rate, or total fertility rate (TFR), is the number of children a woman would have if she lived to the end of her childbearing years and had children in line with the current age-specific fertility rates. The replacement birth rate is 2.1 children per woman, which ensures that a population remains stable over time
What we are seeing in Europe is a progressive reduction in the Non-Muslim population while the Muslim population increases rapidly. The difference between the replacement birth rate - 2.6 (Muslims) vs 1.6 (Non-Muslims) is stark!
Taken as a whole, non-Muslim European women are projected to have a total fertility rate of 1.6 children, on average, during the 2015-2020 period, compared with 2.6 children per Muslim woman in the region. This difference of one child per woman is particularly significant given that fertility among European Muslims exceeds replacement level (i.e., the rate of births needed to sustain the size of a population) while non-Muslims are not having enough children to keep their population steady. (“Europe’s Growing Muslim Population” / Pew Research)
This is shown in the difference in population trajectories between the two groups.
So what does this mean?
But that hides a larger problem. Of its economic future.
The immigrants have lower educational levels and therefore take lower-income jobs compared to EU citizens, and are severely under-represented in high-end professions.
With the education-income variable change, another social factor gets impacted - innovation.
In the next 30-50 years, Europe will see a demographic swap. Lower education-income-innovation refugees/migrants will take over from the current EU citizens as the new deciders of Europe’s fate.
What about the United States?
The White Population in US is now Declining
Over the past decades, the growth in the White people’s population had slowed, but the last decade saw a net decline for the first time.
Meanwhile, people from other races are increasing. The highest growth is amongst Hispanics, then Asians, and then Blacks.
What does this mean for the United States as a whole?
The change is not religious. Although it may be more denominational - a predominantly Protestant population is overshadowed by a predominantly Catholic one (Hispanics).
So is it all doom and gloom for the White people in the West?
New data shows that the more religious and conservative the families, the higher the fertility rate.
If we look at the data for the fertility rates of women who aligned with the Conservative causes/values and Republican Party versus those who were aligned with the Liberal causes/values and Democratic Party from the 1970s through to today, we see how trends have changed.
During the 1970s, the fertility rates were roughly the same.
The fertility of conservative women over age 45 is at least 0.25 higher than that of liberal women. Conservative women have a higher number of kids than their liberal counterparts on average.
This has a direct political impact.
You see, pro-Trump counties have 25% higher total fertility rates than most pro-Biden counties.
And this is called “fertility advantage”. It has been active since 2004.
Demographer Lyman Stone, who conducted this analysis, also examined earlier presidential elections while controlling for county racial and ethnic characteristics and population densities. He found that the Republicans’ so-called “fertility advantage” has been stable since at least 2004. (Source: Trendspotting: Conservatives Have More Babies Than Liberals / Hedgeye)
The correlation is strong.
Here is a very interesting analysis by David Shor. Shor is a data scientist and political consultant known for his work in analyzing political polls and advising Democratic campaigns.
So his narrative is representative of the Democratic core thought.
Do you see where this is going?
The whole political battle is a Demographic War.
The US is also a Religious Demographic Swap…
Let’s see it the way it is.
Yes, the Conservative women have a high fertility rate compared to the Liberal women. But by pushing the age when the values change to conservative from liberal has increased by around 10 years. So, even when the liberals are losing Blacks and Hispanics who are turning evangelical, they are reversing the impact by pushing the age when the youth “comes of age” ideologically.
With religion being central to the conservative/evangelical/pro-Trump audience, the demographic battle in America also becomes a religious one.
Quite honestly, it is a struggle between religion and the loss of religion.
As long as the importance and value of the Christian religion remain intact in the heartland, and the baton is passed on to the new generation at an early age, the future of the conservative population can be made secure.
With that in mind, one needs to look at the surge in illegals in the last few years.
Bottomline: Demographic swap will be done away from the conservative value system by the larger ‘managerial class’. By hook or by crook! Latter if necessary.